Outlook

On July 25, 2017, Ahlstrom-Munksjö reiterated the outlook on comparable EBITDA and shutdowns published on May 15, 2017. The guidance on market outlook and capital expenditure were revised.

Market outlook: The demand outlook for 2017 for Ahlstrom-Munksjö’s fiber-based products is expected to remain stable at the current good level for most of the product segments and to reflect the seasonal pattern. Price increases continue to be implemented to mitigate raw material cost inflation and they will take effect during the rest of the year.

EBITDA: Comparable EBITDA in 2017 is expected to be higher than in the previous year (pro forma EUR 268.7 million).

ShutdownsThe annual maintenance and vacation shutdowns in the third quarter as well as the seasonal shutdowns at the end of 2017 are expected to be carried out to about the same extent as in 2016. However, the maintenance shutdown usually carried out in the third quarter in the Swedish plant Billingsfors is replaced by shorter stops in the second and fourth quarters due to changes in the shift form. The next maintenance shut-down at the pulp production facility in Aspa in Sweden will be carried out in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Capital expenditure: The cash flow effect of current capital expenditure for fixed assets in 2017 is expected to be approximately EUR 80 million, which is higher than the previously estimated EUR 70 million, to address the good demand. In addition, the cash flow impact of the strategic investments in Arches and Madisonville is expected to be approximately EUR 18 million. 

Previous outlook published on May 15, 2017:

Market outlook: The demand outlook for 2017 for Ahlstrom-Munksjö’s fiber-based products is expected to remain stable at the current good level for most of the product segments and to reflect the seasonal pattern. Price increases are implemented as customer contracts expire to mitigate for raw material price increases in certain segments, particularly in the Decor and Release Paper Europe businesses. The price increases will take effect towards the end of the second quarter.

EBITDA: comparable EBITDA in 2017 is expected to be higher than in the previous year.

Shutdowns: The annual maintenance and vacation shutdowns in the second and third quarter as well as the seasonal shutdowns at the end of 2017 are expected to be carried out to about the same extent as in 2016. However the maintenance shutdown usually carried out in the third quarter in the Swedish plant Billingsfors, will be replaced by shorter stops in the second and fourth quarter, due to changes in the shift form. The next maintenance shut down at the pulp production facility in Aspa in Sweden will be carried out in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Capital expenditure: The cash flow effect of current capital expenditure for fixed assets in 2017 is expected to be approximately EUR 70 million. In addition, the cash flow impact of the strategic investments in the Arches mill and in Madisonville is expected to be approximately EUR 10 million and EUR 8 million respectively.

Updated: July 25, 2017.

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